基于灰色系统的北太平洋柔鱼渔汛特征分析及旺汛期预测

Analysis of the fishing seasons characteristics of Ommastrephes bartramii and prediction of the main fishing seasons based on the grey system theory

中文关键词: 柔鱼  渔汛  旺汛期  灰色波形预测

英文关键词: Ommastrephes bartramii  Fishing seasons  Main fishing season  Grey wave forecasting

中文摘要:

      柔鱼(Ommastrephes bartramii)是大洋性经济头足类，是我国远洋鱿钓渔船重要的捕捞对象。分析柔鱼渔汛特征并预测旺汛期，有助于柔鱼资源的合理开发与利用。本研究根据2013―2017年北太平洋柔鱼渔业生产统计数据，以每日平均渔获量(CPUEday)作为资源丰度，利用分位数的方法划分旺汛期；结合灰色波形预测方法，对旺汛期日期序列建立灰色波形预测模型群[GM(1,1)模型]，对旺汛期出现的时间进行预测。结果显示，北太平洋柔鱼渔汛时间最早为5月12日，一直持续到年终；旺汛期为每年的8―11月，第1旺汛期基本在8月出现。GM(1,1)模型的平均相对误差为6.83%，旺汛期日期序列预测的平均相对误差为8.19%，验证数据的平均相对误差为15.82%，表明此模型可预测北太平洋柔鱼的旺汛期。研究结果可为远洋渔业企业的高效率、合理化的科学生产提供技术支撑。

英文摘要:

      Ommastrephes bartramiii, a neon flying squid, is an economically important oceanic cephalopod, which is widely distributed in the North Pacific Ocean. In China, it is one of the most important fishing targets of distant-water squid jigging vessels. Because of its short life cycle, the fishing seasons and its main fishing seasons have obvious year difference. Therefore, analyzing the characteristics of the O. bartramii fishing season and predicting the main fishing season are helpful for the rational development and sustainable harvest of O. bartramii. We analyzed fishery data for neon flying squid from China squid jigging fisheries during 2013 to 2017. The daily catch per fishing effort (CPUEday) was used to provide the abundance index and was considered as an indicator for judging the division of main fishing seasons. The quantile method was used to identify the main fishing seasons. And the grey wave forecasting method is also used to establish the grey model group [GM (1,1) model] based on the date series of the actual main fishing seasons. The results showed that the earliest catch of neon flying squid is May 12 with catches lasting until the end of the year. The primary period of the fishing season is from August to November each year. The first main fishing peak occurs in August. The average relative error of the grey wave forecasting GM (1,1) model group is 6.83%, the average relative error of the date series forecast during the main fishing season is 8.19%, and the average relative error of the validation data is 15.82%. It is concluded that this grey model can be used to predict the main fishing season for neon flying squid in the North Pacific Ocean. The findings of this study not only provide technical support for efficient and rational capture of distant-water fishery enterprises, but also provide a useful tool for prediction of the main fishing seasons for marine capture fisheries.