基于GNOME的溢油污染渔业资源损失评估

Oil Spill Pollution and Fishery Resource Loss Assessment Based on GNOME

中文关键词: GNOME  溢油  渔业资源  损失评估

英文关键词: GNOME  Oil spill  Fishery resources  Loss assessment

中文摘要:

      基于GNOME溢油模型模拟“世纪之光”轮沉没溢油事件的漂移轨迹和扩散分布。采用FVCOM水动力模型模拟建立潮流场，与《潮汐表》的结果基本吻合。采用美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP)的环境预报系统再分析资料(CFSR)的风场，通过GNOME溢油模型进行数值模拟，得出最小遗憾轨迹跟最佳预测区域，并采用泰森分析法进行污染面积分析。结果显示，将21 h的模拟结果与MODIS遥感监测数据对照发现，漂移位置基本吻合。参照各种渔业资源的评估标准、海洋生态损害和损失补偿评估的方法，将模拟结果与拖网调查数据相结合，分别计算出游泳动物直接经济损失为6.1万元，渔业资源4 d内的直接损失为51.29万元，得出“世纪之光”轮4 d内的溢油损失已达到了211.26万元。本研究将数值模拟方法与渔业资源的评估相互联系，不通过现场观测就可以对渔业资源的损失进行估算。GNOME溢油模型可以运用于类似的溢油事故溢油轨迹和扩散的快速预报，为溢油事故应急响应提供了参考。

英文摘要:

      By using the GNOME model of oil spillage, the drift trajectory and diffusion distribution of the “Century Light” oil spill were simulated. First, the FVCOM hydrodynamic model was used to simulate the tidal field, which was broadly consistent with the results of the tide tables. The wind field was determined by using the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis Data (CFSR) of the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The GNOME oil spill model was used for numerical simulation, and Tyson’s method was used for the analysis of the contaminated area. The “minimum regret” trajectory and the best forecast region were obtained through numerical simulation. The comparison of the simulation results after 21 hours with the MODIS remote sensing monitoring data showed that the drift position was basically consistent. This paper describes the assessment criteria for various fishery resources and methods for determining marine ecological damage and loss compensation assessment. Combining the simulation results with the trawl survey data, the direct economic loss of swimming animals was calculated to be 61000 yuan, with the direct loss of fishery resources, within 4 days, reaching a value of 511900 yuan. The oil loss from the “Century Light” event reached a value of 2112600 yuan within 4 days. In this paper, the method of numerical simulation was related to the assessment of fishery resources, and the loss of fishery resources was estimated without on-site observation. The GNOME oil spill model can be applied to similar oil spill trajectories and for rapid prediction of flooding, to provide a method and reference for emergency response to oil spill accidents. The combination of numerical simulation of oil spills and on-site observations will be an important reference method for new ideas in future calculations of fishery resource losses and fishing losses, leading to more comprehensive and scientific handling of oil spills.