Prediction of Abundance Index of the Humboldt Squid (Dosidicus gigas) in the Southeast Pacific Ocean Based on a Grey System-Based Model

Abstract:

The Humboldt squid (Dosidicus gigas) is one of the most abundant fisheries resource in the Southeast Pacific Ocean. It has become an important component of China's offshore fisheries due to its high economic value. Accurate abundance index prediction is important to the rational development and utilization of D. gigas. In this study, the correlation analysis and grey system method were used to establish a model (GM) for predicting the abundance of squid in the southeastern Pacific based on fishery data as well as environmental and climatic factors, including Sea Surface Temperature (SST), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Oceanic Nino Index (ONI), and Chlorophyll concentration a (Chl a). The results showed that the SST of the spawning ground in February, the Chl a of the spawning ground in March, the PDO in December, and the ONI in October had significant correlations with the abundance of squid. The GM (1, 4) model with SST, PDO, and ONI as independent variables had the highest accuracy (> 85%), which could be used to accurately predict the abundance of D. gigas in the Southeast Pacific.