Potential Geographic Distribution of Laminaria hyperborea in the Bohai and Huanghai Seas of China Based on MaxEnt Model

Abstract:

Ecological niche model MaxEnt was applied to estimate the suitability probability of Laminaria hyperborea in the Bohai and Huanghai Seas of China. In this study, the native occurrence data of L. hyperborea and 21 key environmental variables were selected to build the ecological niche model and then redefined into occurrence zones by suitability probabilities. The contribution of each environmental variable to the model was estimated using JackKnifing techniques. The results showed that the contributions from temperature and light intensity to the spreading of L. hyperborea dominated all considered environmental parameters. In the forecasted areas, suitable probabilities were significant when the temperatures range from 718℃ and the light intensities were below 52 E/(m2∙d). Although the concentrations of N and P contributed to the prediction model, they would barely reach the limitation value for L. hyperborea in natural sea water. Additionally, our results showed that 1.67% of the entire forecasted area had a medium distribution probability, which was mainly limited within Changhai Town of Dalian City. Of the total area, 5.12% was low occurrence probability zones, mainly spreading along the east to the Liaodong Peninsula, north to the Shandong Peninsula, and northwest of the Bohai Sea. Furthermore, unbefitting and marginal suitable distribution areas represent 88.51% and 4.70% of Chinese coast, respectively. The results indicate that Changhai Town could be an ideal location for the construction of L. hyperborea beds.