Bayesian Bio-economic Model and Management Strategy of Chub Mackerel (Scomber japonicus) in the East China Sea and the Yellow Sea

Abstract:

According to the fishery data of light purse seine fisheries of China, Japan and South Korea and the associated economic data during 2000 to 2011, the Bayesian method was used to construct the bio-economic models of Chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) in the East China Sea and the Yellow Sea under three assumptions (uniform distribution, normal distribution and log-normal distribution). The resource status and economic benefits under three different management strategies (short-term, medium-term and long-term) were compared and the suitable management strategies were evaluated. The results showed that the most estimated expectation (except for BMSY under the normal distribution scenario) of management reference points under the normal distribution and log-normal distribution was less than that under the uniform distribution. It suggested that from the biological perspective, if the harvest rate is settled to more than 0.4, the biomass after 2031 may collapse, and the more conservative management strategy should be settled the harvest rate at 0.3. The probability of B2031>BMSY is greater than 0.85, and MSY is about 350 thousand tons. Likewise, if only from the economics perspective, the harvest rate is controlled at 0.1, the probability of B2031>BMEY is 1, and the probability of B2031